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David "PiperFan" JohnsonPerson was signed in when posted
03:57 UT
From the Archives: "Confederacion"

Twenty years ago this month, Piper fan Steve Newton posted some fascinating thoughts to the old PIPER-L mailing list, about the pre-Federation history of South America, imagining the "Ibero-American Confederacion" from the Hartley yarns also to be an element of the Terro-human Future History.

Subject: Confederacion
From: Steve Newton
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 23:23:29 -0400

I have been thinking that if I am going to argue the case that the Southern
nations had been following strategies consistent with their own self-
interest for a long time prior to WW4, I should show how this might have
happened. David’s comment that the Lanningham quote doesn’t preclude the
possibility that someone in the South had atomic weapons also played into
this conception. What I am essentially attempting to do is lay the
groundwork for precisely how the South manages to stay out of the second,
more destructive, nuclear confrontation. The timeline below is by no means
directly drawn from Piper; only four entries have even indirect connections
to actual Piper quotations. So this is definitely apocrypha, yet along the
lines that David argues for his Commonwealth history: if this sequence is
not what Piper would have written himself, it at least attempts to be
consistent with the clues we do possess.

My whole point is to show that the South, especially Latin America, did not
intend to sit passively on its hands while the growing confrontation
between capitalism and communism threatened nuclear war. Let me know how
you find this. . . .

A note for David: this timeline also presents my answer to who settled
Antarctica and why (and when). It is not necessarily inconsistent with
your own scenario with the US moving in later, as it might be easier to
move in and take over a going concern, or the US colonies might be
competitors (after all, Antarctica is a pretty big place. But I persist in
thinking that Argentina and Chile would have gone there first if world
attention was diverted to a building confrontation in the North (which
means there was no international treaty to keep the area pristine).


An Early History of the Ibero-American Confederacion:


ARGENTINA: Generalmajor Horst von Schlicten escapes to Argentina during
the collapse of the Third Reich.


CENTRAL AMERICA: US-sponsored coup against left-leaning government of
Guatemala installs a military government, restoring previously nationalized
holdings to United Fruit Company.


SPAIN: Death of Franco in airplane crash; “Little Civil War” breaks out
over succession of power.


SPAIN: Restoration of the Spanish Hapsburg monarchy under King Juan I; at
his coronation announces the “Hapsburg Doctrine” that since the Hispanic
and Latin American nations clustered around the Atlantic share a common
cultural heritage and economic future that they should be free to pursue
them without the interference of the great capitalist and communist power
blocs; he reaches a secret bilateral agreement with the Batista government
in Cuba to support it in power against “Communist agitators”; 25,000
Spanish troops, including Foreign Legion and Azul Division veterans embark
for Cuba.


CUBA: Cuban Revolution opens on 1 January; Batista government collapses,
but Spanish Expeditionary Corps under General Eugenio Morales holds Havana
and key enclaves on the coast; with the tacit agreement of the US that Cuba
is “better Catholic than Communist,” the Spanish Navy transports
reinforcements to the island, which by the end of the year have reduced
Castro’s forces to an ineffectual guerilla movement in the hills


CUBA: King Juan I of Spain announces the formal re-annexation of Cuba,
appointing Morales as Governor-General; US reluctantly recognizes this
action based on Hapsburg assurances that “Spain has answered the call of a
traditional responsibility, and has no further territorial ambitions in the
Western Hemisphere”; US is nonetheless asked to give up naval base at
Guantanamo Bay.


SPAIN: Juan I announces the creation of the Ibero-American Confederacion,
consisting of Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and Argentina; Statement of First
Principles declares the Confederacion to be non-aligned with any other
major power bloc, promising neutrality in international conflicts, and
denying use of port facilities or air space to military forces of the
Western Union or Eastern Axis.


CENTRAL AMERICA: CIO [Central Intelligence Organization] identifies
Spanish Legionnaires among the leadership cadres of the “Free Guatemala”
guerilla movement that has sprung up against the US-backed military


CENTRAL AMERICA: After a series of battlefield defeats, military
government in Guatemala agrees to free elections and power-sharing with
the “Free Guatemala” movement

SPAIN: Confederacion announces the inauguration of the Cavor Project, at
an undisclosed location (eventually to be set up in the re-captured
Malvinas; see 1967).


MEXICO: Vera Cruz Accord adds Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, and
Costa Rico to Confederacion (only extreme US military pressure keeps Panama
from joining Confederacion); Confederacion also announces a fifty-
mile “exclusion zone” restricting non-member military vessels and aircraft
from operating along member nations’ coasts; Western Union and Eastern Axis
both denounce this action


SPAIN: King Juan I announces the creation of a unified Confederacion
military force, to be commanded by newly promoted Marshal Morales with
former Argentinian Defense Minister, Horst von Schlicten, as Chief of the
General Staff.

AFRICA: With covert Confederacion and Eastern Axis aid, British and French
colonial possessions in west Africa unify and declare their independence as
the “New Songhai Empire.” New Songhai signs treaties of friendship with
Confederacion and pledges non-alignment in East-West conflicts.

ARGENTINA: With British attention diverted toward the crisis in west
Africa, Argentina seizes the Falklands [Malvinas] Islands; the islands
immediately become the center of the Cavor Project.


CHILE: Chile joins Confederacion.


ANTARCTICA: Confederacion adjudicates Chilean-Argentine claims to
Antarctica by mandating the Madrid Division of Territorial Claims.

SOUTH ATLANTIC: Confederacion detonates atomic bomb east of the Malvinas

SOUTH AFRICA: Signs bilateral trade agreement with Confederacion despite
British pressure; agreement requires that South Africa not allow Western
Union permanent basing status.


CENTRAL AMERICA: Citing national security, President Hartley moves 50,000
additional US troops into Panama and effectively (if not nominally) annexes
the country to direct US control; Confederacion and Eastern Axis both
denounce the action.

ANTARCTICA: Chile and Argentina place permanent colonies in Antarctica;
Confederacion establishes naval base there; US, UK, and USSR bases receive
formal notice that only “civilian scientific research” will be permitted at
their facilities.


SPAIN: Juan I announces the Confederacion’s “Peaceful Ocean” Initiative,
which seeks to place the entire South Atlantic Ocean off-limits to non-
Confederacion vessels and aircraft armed with atomic bombs or missiles, and
to restrict passage of all other non-Confederacion military vessels and
aircraft to specific mid-Ocean corridors.

ARGENTINA: Confederacion conducts successful test launch of IRBM with the
capability to reach targets in either the US or USSR.


Steve's original message is available here:


Bonne journée,

"That's probably why the Southern Hemisphere managed to stay out of the Third and Fourth World Wars." - Carlos von Schlichten (H. Beam Piper), ~Uller Uprising~
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